What I’ve learned over the years is if I’m trading what most people are trading I’m probably losing money for clients so it is OK to be contrarian with some of your investment themes. On the lows today July Crude was just over $1 from its February lows closing below $74 today while June Crude [...]
Generally when trading commodities there will be certain products that you know going into the trade will be volatile but in this environment expect almost every tradable commodity to be volatile and trade accordingly. A trade below $76 today in June Crude should mean that prices are going to test the lows in February about [...]
These markets seem to change minute to minute…hour to hour…day to day. The 40 day moving average that we quoted yesterday was re-visited today and held in oil. Being that we did not make a new high we are still operating under the impression that prices need to move lower before we get any substantial [...]
Having a trading plan and ignoring the wild swings is vital in this environment. A doji star on the daily candlestick chart tells me that we may have hit an interim top yesterday. The low today in the April contract was within 6 cents of the 40 day moving; for now that level supports. We [...]
Crude traded above $80/barrel today and we would start to look for an exit door on longs. I suggest tightening up stops on futures and to half your long option position. There most likely is more upside but we feel all things considered a move of almost $6 this week is not justified. On a seasonal basis [...]
We wanted confirmation before taking a stance in crude and with prices convincingly higher today we are thinking the recent shake out may be all the bears get. Today’s move carried prices back above the 200 day moving average and at the highs we traded to the 40 day moving average. As long as April [...]
IS there a bubble in China I do not think so as it relates to commodities but expect volatility as they will be absent from the markets next week. Though past performance is not indicative of future results I recall last year big swings and would expect the same this year. All things being equal volatility [...]
Crude was higher again today trading back up to the 18 day MA but failed to get back above the down sloping trend line. What was disturbing today was how little the premiums moved in options. Talking to the floor there seems to be a ton of option selling in recent sessions. If prices can trade [...]
Crude will close down about $1.50 on the day and about $6 off its highs intra week highs. The fact that prices did not break down and heavy buying came in below $70/barrel this correction may be close to over. Clients are still holding their May call spreads and are under water but we expect [...]
Crude was down 5% today which hurts being we’ve let a wining trade become a loser for clients. They are out of all their futures with no damage done but still hold May $7 call spreads. Relatively speaking we are only back to levels from 4 days ago but the path we took here is [...]
