MBWealth's Commodity Blog » reflation

Talk about a head fake 6/4/9

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 19:23:50 +0000

I was already tooting my horn calling a commodity correction and it didn’t even last 24 hours. That is what I love about these markets, they can certainly humble you. Energies pushed thru recent highs for crude and the distillates, we remian spectators. We will continue to advise accumulating nat. gas at these levels; we have numerous futures and option strategies. We advised clients o take a profit on their short Loonie positions today as we don’t want a winner to become a loser. All 3 central banks kept rates unchanged today; ECB at 1.0%, BoE at 0.50% and BoC at 0.25%. The correction in agriculture only lasted one day. We did not see a larger enough dip to buy corn YET. We remain short July beans for clients, we are now down on the trade $200/per. Continue to fade any rallies in Tresuries and/or Euro-dollars. The Euro-dollar is a trade that will play out over the coming quarters and years, we view any rallies as selling opportunities. Our picks are December 09′ put options or March 10′ short futures. Gold and silver were higher today, we have suggested to lighten up on longs and will be a buyer on setbacks. It is possible to see $1000 in gold and $17 in silver before a setback. We advised clients to take a small loss in their short ES trade today as we don’t want to be short into tom’s NFP #. Shorter term we could have some pressure in sugar but longer term we like being long; that being said we executed a bullish option play for clients today. Contact us for details.

Does Month end matter any more ? 5/29/9

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 29 May 2009 19:32:46 +0000

After a monster month commodities held their ground with a number of commodities making new highs. Crude oil up every day this week, fast approaching $70. A correction in oil and RBOB is over due but will it happen? Traders not willing to trade futures or sell options we advised to buy August $4.50/5.50 call spreads for $2000 on natural gas. Is the dollar doomed? All currencies advanced! Traders who took our advice taking a stab at shorting the Pound were stopped out at a loss again, should have been roughly $600/700 per contract. All int’l currencies that we trade with the exception of the yen printed new 09′ highs. However we did advise a long yen play in recent blogs; July 105/108 call spread at $1000. Gold and silver appear unstopable. Diversify your holdings…the new flight to quality seems to be precious metals. The fact they didn ‘t break at all on month end is very telling. We’re currently losing money in the June lean hog calls in a very light postion, outside of that no real interest in livestock currently. Equities look like they are due for a break but looks can be deceiving. When will the next shoe drop? Fade this rally in treasuries and Euro-dollars.

No Inflation..yeah right 5/28/9

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 28 May 2009 19:22:43 +0000

Yesterday’s lunch $17 at Wendys, today’s breakfast $13 at dunkin donuts,$47 in gas for my SUVand not even a full tank. Energies higher across the board, the leader of the pack natural gas up 8.5% today. Read previous blogs, we’ve been advising clients long positions. Try shorting the Pound againwith a stop above yesterdays high at 1.6084. Int’l currencies are looking toppy; we’re not advising going short to clients but take profits on longs and tighten up stops. Soybean spread; November over July spread came in 11 cents today. Silver at highest price since August of last year. We remain cautiously long but we bumped against the 50% retracement line today, next significant resistacne at $16.75. If gold gets trhu $975 look fora jump to $1000.

Don’t count your chickens until the eggs hatch 5/18/9

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 18 May 2009 19:35:07 +0000

We had voiced our concerns that things had gotten ahead of themselves and stocks and commodities should see a setback but apparently the markets think differently as virtually all commoities gained today and the stock makret is up 2.5% as of this post. One could remain long but we would strongly advise lightening up, at minimunm tightening stops. We would much rather be on the sidelines wishing we were in the maket than in the market wishing we were on the sidelines. Oil led energies higher on turmoil in Nigeria. The dollar traded lower and int’l currencies gained; if forced to be long we like the Loonie and Aussie. New trade idea; short the BP with stops above 1.5350, target 1.46. In the next 2 weeks we expect a washout trade lower in agriculture, to date we have been wrong. Expect 11.50 to act as solid resistacne on July beans. Indecision in metals?? The good news is gold and silver seem to be trading on the own merits with little outside influence. Sugar was higher by 4.5% today, so much for the correction, stand aside for now but this will be on our conviction buy list very soon.

Guided by oil and the dollar 12/8/08

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 23:24:58 +0000

We started the week with an 8% move higher in Crude, but this is after a 25% reduction last week so don’t get too excited. The US dollar was 2% lower and is exhibiting signs of a top forming. If we see the dollar fade and oil move higher commodities are back. At this point it I am cautiously optimistic. You saw a rally virtually commodity wide; energies, agriculture, softs and metals. Very few markets failed to move higher. One day does not make a trend but we will use the ensuing rally to get positioned for clients in corn, soybeans, gold, silver, sugar, and coffee just to name a few. The stock market sold off into the close but has benefiited over the last 2 sessions largely on the expected bailout of the “Big 3″ and the Obama infrastructure plan. Sugar and silver remain our focus!