MBWealth’s Commodity Blog

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Markets are hot and cold… up and down…bullish then bearish day to day. Until trends are established lighten up and adjust your trading size. Yesterday it appeared a close below the 50 day MA in Crude had prices poised to move lower but a late day rally allowed prices to hold that level; in September [...]

Please click on spreadsheet to view and zoom to 100% Energies Crude oil prices dropped nearly $7/barrel last week and could challenge the lows from late May. We don’t read too much into the sideways action in the last five weeks and instead view it as a trading range. As position traders well know there [...]

The 9 day MA held once again today as energies were 1.40-4% higher on the session. It appears the path of least resistance remains up in Crude oil and the distillates. The only two situations where we would likely change our mind is a reversal lower in equities or a bearish inventory report tomorrow. Without [...]

Oil will close down on the day after reaching a 10 month low on the front month contract at $67.15. Aggressive traders were likely stopped out of their futures at a loss when lows were made overnight. Until we turn the corner we would refrain from futures and instead buy August and September $5 call [...]

The markets have relaxed but as investors you must not. Their will be wild gyrations in the weeks to come so start thinking long and hard how you want to be positioned. At the moment $69 appears to be the line in the sand on front month Crude oil; July as of this post is [...]

Please click on spreadsheet and zoom in adobe reader Energies No doubt the wind has been taken out of the bull’s sails as last week’s Crude oil was lower by almost 13% giving back gains from the prior three months. This violent move has little to nothing to do with a fundamental shift but rather [...]

In the last three sessions Crude has come down $7 in June futures. Prices have retraced over 50% from their February low and April high but we do not think sellers are done. At this moment we are expecting $76-78. Clients are neither long nor short at the moment. The near 10% correction in the [...]

Base and precious metals no longer appear to be correlated, Treasuries inverse relationship to indices no longer exist, dollar up equals commodities down right…wrong. When things do not make sense take your position size down. Mixed results in Crude today with the front month lower and back months gaining. Take for instance just the first 2 [...]

Please click on the spreadsheet to view and adjust the zoom on the reader if needed Energies Crude closed slightly off it’s’ highs last week just above $86/barrel. Either this week or next week we expect June Crude to make a new high which would lift prices above $87.59…trade accordingly. A possible idea could be [...]