The Federal Reserve meeting today was a non-event. Inside day in Crude oil with prices trading slightly lower. Unless we get a surprise in tomorrow’s inventory report we’re still anticipating a 2.5-4.0% reduction in pricing. Natural gas has retreated just over 7% in the last four sessions dragging prices back below the 20 day MA. [...]
After 6 positive days is the stock markets day of reckoning upon us? A failed rally in crude today though the 50 day MA did support prices; that level in August is $76.45. Aggressive traders use that level as your pivot point. The option spread mentioned in recent posts; the October $80/85 settled around $1700 [...]
Remember trading is a marathon not a sprint. It is about how much money we can make long term not every trade. Crude finished lower for the third consecutive day today trading below but closing above the 9 day MA. As we voiced yesterday on a penetration of that level expect the next stop to [...]
All eyes will be on the US dollar as the risk aversion trade and news whether a bailout will or will not happen out of Europe continues to be the driving force. As noted in our commentary Monday we expect some type of resolution and the flow of money that went into Treasuries and the [...]
Oil broke below the support level indicated in recent sessions. This is why we chose to use May options spreads as opposed to futures; again clients own $7 Bull call spreads. If aggressive traders were long futures they should have got stopped at a loss just below $75. 3 days running natural gas has come off [...]
Markets appear to be waiting for the NFP # which we expect to be a market mover. Unemployment should maintain 10%, projections for jobs range from a gain of 200,000 to a loss of 200,000? Pay attention to the revisions as well. Crude failed to make a new high and after 10 consecutive positive sessions [...]
While short or long is only a difference in direction why do traders have a problem getting short. Maybe it is the psychology; perhaps it is easier to cheer for an asset to move up rather than down. To be extremely successful in this volatile environment we think a long only mentality is not the way to go. Why [...]
Oil was higher by2% today and it looks as if prices are on their way to $74. We are holding December $75/80 call spreads for clients. Natural gas was higher by 9-13% today depending on the month. We advised clients to lighten up and take partial profits on their November and December call spreads. We feel [...]
Crude broke lower today and is currently down just over 4%, a 50% Fibonacci retracement takes prices in September down to $66. It is unlikely we see a complete reversal but it is possible to see a trade down to the trend line at $65 with no longer term chart damage. We prefer to be a buyer [...]
Could the sell-off in the dollar and the ensuing rally in commodities today be attributed to the G-8? The dollar and yen were lower as all other currencies rallied, perhaps the fear trade? So many questions lets try to get some answers. Crude oil was marginally higher as it appears the 100 day moving average [...]
