MBWealth’s Commodity Blog

A great saying I read on one of the blogs I read…eat turkey and do not be one. It was referring to doing homework when trading…having a plan and executing it. I for one am looking forward to some turkey and family time …until next week! Crude oil worked lower again today as it appears this [...]

Crude powers through the 40 day MA closing at three week highs just under $99/barrel in August. We maintain a $103 target and continuing at the current up pace prices should reach that level by this time next week. The 2% surge in Crude was dwarfed by the strength in the distillates with RBOB higher [...]

A healthy move by China overnight should aid in further appreciation in most commodities in the medium and long term…in my opinion. Higher low and higher high in Crude likely helped by outside markets and the move in China overnight. On a settlement over $100/ barrel look for upside momentum to build…we are cautiously bullish [...]

Clearly the Fed has no clue and if this is a market with NO inflation I’d hate to see a commodity market with inflation. Crude fights back in late dealings to close marginally positive in today’ sessions. My opinion is this price action was position squaring and light buying ahead of Bernanke’s speech today and [...]

Not only is tomorrow a Fed decision day on rates Bernanke will be interviewed so expect fireworks. Inside day in Crude oil as we failed to make a new low with prices closing only marginally lower. Our bearish bias exists but we would like to see confirmation. On a break lower we think we could [...]

An early rally failed in Crude today taking prices lower. We advised clients to roll out of May and go out until July. We recommended liquidating bullish positions in options and futures and give yourself two more months of time. Our recommended play is purchasing July $5 bull call spreads. Aggressive clients started to buy [...]

By no stretch a bubble in my opinion but yes a slowdown in China could temporarily cause a correction in commodities. Crude oil was lower by approximately 2.75% on a bearish inventory report but much of the losses came pre-release. Being there was not increased selling and the 50 day MA held (see previous posts) [...]

The last few posts we’ve referenceda dead cat bounce in the US dollar and how it will affect other markets. Have you listened? Conflicting figures in today’s inventory report as a large build in Crude was canceled out by a large draw in RBOB. The 20 day MA in December at $82.50 should act as [...]

Crude looks to close almost $4 off its intra-day high dragging prices back near $80/barrel on the December contract. Today’s low and mild support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $79.85. Next support is seen at $78.50 followed by $77.25. We’re expecting prices to trade down and have advised light short futures exposure [...]

Yes you read it right look for a bounce in the US dollar and a temporary set back in most commodities. Crude closes slightly lower for the first time in four sessions. The trend remains up but after the price explosion in recent sessions understand that in three weeks prices have moved from oversold to [...]