MBWealth's Commodity Blog » inflation http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com A place for resources on commodity trading and investing Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:55:37 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 Building on Strength 2/7/11 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/02/07/building-on-strength-2711/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/02/07/building-on-strength-2711/#comments Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:55:37 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3697 Metals, stocks and even foreign currencies continue to build on strength as 2012 has virtually been a one way trade…will this continue? Crude oil erased the previous week’s losses adding 1.9% today but failed to close above $99 in March. I view that level as the pivot point so I remain bearish still. Be willing to cut loses on any shorts if prices trade through that level in the coming sessions. Natural gas continues to bounce around and I would suggest no long or short trades until we get a clearer picture. A fresh 2012 high with equities gaining 0.50% today. The 9 day MA continues to act as my pivot point and although we’re approaching overbought levels I learned a long time ago not to jump in front of a freight train. Positive news out of Europe with progress being made caused the Euro to jump and other crosses to follow. Clearly wherever the Euro goes other currencies will follow and at the moment that looks like higher ground. It also helped that the US dollar fell to a two month low. Gold and silver reversed early in the AM to go from negative to positive with gold and silver gaining 1.4% as of this post. Prices may try to visit the recent highs but I have not seen enough of a correction to justify further upside. I am still looking for a move under $1700/ounce in the June contract. March silver is back above $34/ounce but like gold I feel we have more of a break before any serious advance. If you notice in this complex gold, silver and copper seem to be consolidating …the debate is if the market is taking a breath for additional upside or preparing for a reversal? OJ lost nearly 3% closing below $2 for the first time in three weeks…expect  further losses as the 50 day MA may come into play. That level is $1.83 in March. Continue to use the 20 day MA as your pivot point in Treasuries as 10-yr notes and 30-yr bonds closed below that level today. Traders can gain bearish exposure in 2013 Euro-dollars with stops above the recent highs. The suggested play would be to build a position on the way down while trailing stops. Ag prices appear to be stalling unable to hold onto gains across the complex. Most traders are likely waiting for Thursday’s USDA report and will make a move based on the numbers. Any longs should be trailing stops and it may be prudent to book profits and be in a cash position headed into the USDA report. April live cattle continue to wander between $1.27 and 1.29 trading higher back up near the top of that range today. I am suggesting buying a break closer to $1.25. Let lean hogs work lower as well as my target in April is a buy closer to 86 cents…trade accordingly.

 

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/02/07/building-on-strength-2711/feed/ 0 Protected: The Line in the Sand February 06, 2012 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/02/06/the-line-in-the-sand-february-06-2012/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/02/06/the-line-in-the-sand-february-06-2012/#comments Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:08:39 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3693

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]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/22/the-line-in-the-sand-january-23-2012/feed/ 0 Back to Work 1/17/12 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/17/back-to-work-11712/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/17/back-to-work-11712/#comments Tue, 17 Jan 2012 20:41:25 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3636 After a long weekend the markets are back to  normal trading hours. Crude will finish just shy of 2% higher but will not retake the 9 day MA; in March at $101.25. I have advised the sidelines thinking we remain in the $10 range and do no wish to establish a position being we started the day near the middle of the range. Multi-year lows in natural gas with prices down near 7% today. This makes it five losing sessions in a  row with no bottom in site. Equities inch higher as the 9 day MA continues to support. Use that level as your pivot point; in the March Dow at 12370 and the S&P at 1282. Gold traded above the 40 day MA again today closing just under that mark. I’m expecting a further leg higher and this would be accelerated if the dollar was to back off. I see support at $1635 in February as our upside target remains $1680…trade accordingly. Support is seen in silver just above $29 in March with an upside target of $32. The big mover today was copper breaking resistance and advancing to four month highs. This was likely from the continued growth out of China. Q4 GDP coming in just under 9% is certainly nothing to sneeze at. The dollar is exhibiting signs of fatigue but I would like to see a settlement below the 20 day MA before getting too committed . That level is 80.90 in the March contract…trade accordingly. Aggressive traders could buy the Euro or short the Yen with tight stops. Both trades are a slight forces so I would hold off for confirmation. Cotton closed above the 100 day MA for the first time in seven months…take off all bearish trades at a loss. For nine sessions Euro-dollars have picked up steam. There will be a time to get short but until we see signs of an interim top let the market work higher. I am still looking for signs of a bottom before reestablishing longs for clients in any of the Ag markets. I believe we have a shot of seeing the December lows challenged so be patient. Livestock traders could be back long April live cattle and lean hogs with stops just under the 20 day MA. I like the prospect of higher hog prices and the technicals appear a little less risky in my opinion.

 

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/17/back-to-work-11712/feed/ 0 Protected: The Line in the Sand January 16, 2012 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/15/the-line-in-the-sand-january-16-2012/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/15/the-line-in-the-sand-january-16-2012/#comments Sun, 15 Jan 2012 22:13:55 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3633

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]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/15/the-line-in-the-sand-january-16-2012/feed/ 0 The Line in the Sand January 09, 2012 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/08/the-line-in-the-sand-january-09-2012/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/08/the-line-in-the-sand-january-09-2012/#comments Sun, 08 Jan 2012 16:04:41 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3606 Please click on the spreadsheet to view, zoom to 100% if needed. The Line in the Sand format has changed, you will be receiving the chart on technical analysis Monday mornings. Please visit Matthew’s Daily Thought for your market wrap ups and predictions. In addition he will be posting a new article per week, you can find those in Published Articles. If you subscribe to our Feed, you will be notified when new posts are available. If you ever have any questions about The Line in the Sand or any other post, you may contact us for any reason.

]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/08/the-line-in-the-sand-january-09-2012/feed/ 0 The Line in the Sand January 02, 2012 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/02/the-line-in-the-sand-january-02-2012/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/02/the-line-in-the-sand-january-02-2012/#comments Tue, 03 Jan 2012 03:03:55 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3582 Please click on the spreadsheet to view, zoom to 100% if needed. The Line in the Sand format has changed, you will be receiving the chart on technical analysis Monday mornings. Please visit Matthew’s Daily Thought for your market wrap ups and predictions. In addition he will be posting a new article per week, you can find those in Published Articles. If you subscribe to our Feed, you will be notified when new posts are available. If you ever have any questions about The Line in the Sand or any other post, you may contact us for any reason.

]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2012/01/02/the-line-in-the-sand-january-02-2012/feed/ 0 The Line in the Sand December 19, 2011 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2011/12/18/the-line-in-the-sand-december-19-2011/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2011/12/18/the-line-in-the-sand-december-19-2011/#comments Sun, 18 Dec 2011 07:02:52 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3559 Please click on the spreadsheet to view, zoom to 100% if needed. The Line in the Sand format has changed, you will be receiving the chart on technical analysis Monday mornings. Please visit Matthew’s Daily Thought for your market wrap ups and predictions. In addition he will be posting a new article per week, you can find those in Published Articles. If you subscribe to our Feed, you will be notified when new posts are available. If you ever have any questions about The Line in the Sand or any other post, you may contact us for any reason.

]]> http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2011/12/18/the-line-in-the-sand-december-19-2011/feed/ 0 The Line in the Sand December 12, 2011 http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2011/12/11/the-line-in-the-sand-december-12-2011/ http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/2011/12/11/the-line-in-the-sand-december-12-2011/#comments Sun, 11 Dec 2011 17:16:00 +0000 Matthew Bradbard http://commodityblog.mbwealth.com/?p=3532 Please click on the spreadsheet to view, zoom to 100% if needed. The Line in the Sand format has changed, you will be receiving the chart on technical analysis Monday mornings. Please visit Matthew’s Daily Thought for your market wrap ups and predictions. In addition he will be posting a new article per week, you can find those in Published Articles. If you subscribe to our Feed, you will be notified when new posts are available. If you ever have any questions about The Line in the Sand or any other post, you may contact us for any reason.

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