MBWealth’s Commodity Blog

Increased conflict in the Middle East puts the bulls back in control in Crude. If the situation is resolved energies should falter but if the plot thickens expect more “fear” to be priced in. Expect wild swings if willing to trade in this complex. If $97 holds on a closing basis in May aggressive traders [...]

Please click on the spreadsheet to view, zoom to 100% if needed. The Line in the Sand format has changed, you will be receiving the chart on Monday’s. Please visit Matthew’s Daily Thought for your market wrap ups and predictions. In addition he will be posting a new article per week, you can find those [...]

Bearish inventory report and a $2 reversal higher in Crude…smells like a bottom to me. It looks like longs dodged a bullet and we should be moving north from here. Assuming today’s lows hold a $3-5 pop could come relatively quickly. I was most impressed with heating oil today as it led the charge higher [...]

The 9 day MA held once again today as energies were 1.40-4% higher on the session. It appears the path of least resistance remains up in Crude oil and the distillates. The only two situations where we would likely change our mind is a reversal lower in equities or a bearish inventory report tomorrow. Without [...]

Perhaps you remember Mr. Miaggi “wax on…wax off” well this is a bit different but the theme of late appears to be whether investors want risk on or off. It looks to me like oil is trying to carve out a bottom…yes this is a gutsy trade because we’re suggesting to catch a falling knife [...]

After 8 days of rest and relaxation we are back at it trying to figure out the best risk/reward scenarios in the commodities market. It is vital in our opinion to evaluate both before establishing positions as many commodity traders just look at the reward side of the equation. After approaching $86 in early dealings Crude [...]

If you’ve been short energy congratulations, if you’ve been waiting for a correction to get long it is well underway. In the last week crude oil is down 18%, RBOB is lower b y 17.5%, heating oil is down by 18%, and natural gas by 19%.  We will continue to buy October $1 call spreads [...]

March 9th– March 13th 2009 By: Matthew Bradbard This is not about more taste or less filling but rather the more government involvement and medaling in the markets the less likely we will get a prompt recovery and return to a sustainable economy. What should be on your radar this week is the USDA report, [...]

March 2 -6 2009 By: Matthew Bradbard There is a significant difference between preservation and appreciation. In this environment traders/investors must be at the top of their game as unpredictability is widespread and the magnitude of movement in all asset classes is voracious. We want to expand upon one of our posts from last week [...]

February 23 -27 2009 by: Matthew Bradbard In his infinite wisdom I quote one of Rick Santelli’s comments from last week, “Instead of giving away fish we must teach the public how to fish.” Although I think he tweaked the original, this version is more suitable in its current context. The way I view it [...]