MBWealth’s Commodity Blog

At least in Vegas you get free drinks and maybe some comps…this market is a kin to gambling so be cautious. A $7 trading range in Crude oil today takes prices dangerously close to $75/barrel a level not seen in fifteen months. We still say we see $95 before $75 but we may end up [...]

Based on what happens in Greece overnight and tomorrows FOMC meeting we should be able to determine where to position clients moving forward. Crude held its own but do not read into the big volume jump as it is just the July/August roll over. We are cautiously optimistic thinking yesterdays lows could serve as an [...]

Not only is tomorrow a Fed decision day on rates Bernanke will be interviewed so expect fireworks. Inside day in Crude oil as we failed to make a new low with prices closing only marginally lower. Our bearish bias exists but we would like to see confirmation. On a break lower we think we could [...]

Maybe inflation is not a concern but one can trade it as commodities look to be more expensive in the coming sessions and coming weeks to months. The 100 day MA has supported Crude futures the last two sessions; in March at $86.20. As voiced in previous posts we suggest scaling into longs in futures [...]

In case you were not aware the FOMC is meeting today and tomorrow so stay alert as even inaction can be a market mover. We’ve advised aggressive clients to scale into longs in Crude futures and to gain bullish options exposure; today some clients bought May $95/100 bull call spreads. The 100 day MA held [...]

The Federal Reserve meeting today was a non-event. Inside day in Crude oil with prices trading slightly lower. Unless we get a surprise in tomorrow’s inventory report we’re still anticipating a 2.5-4.0% reduction in pricing. Natural gas has retreated just over 7% in the last four sessions dragging prices back below the 20 day MA. [...]

Action this week will depend on the FOMC tomorrow and the markets interpretation. Inside day in Crude oil with prices able to maintain a slight positive bias. We expect the 100 day MA at $80.60 in September to give way and see prices falling 5% in the coming days to weeks. A 50% Fibonacci retracement [...]

The move by the Ag minister in Russia overnight kept things interesting in commodities today. Aggressive traders could look at shorts in Crude oil as long as prices remain below $83 in the September contract. Some clients started to price out October and November put options today…stay tuned. We are anticipating a trade back to [...]

Third consecutive down day in Crude as the August contract today traded below the 9 day MA for the first time in two weeks; that level is $75.80.  There should be some more work on the downside but we would expect buyers to emerge between $73-74. August natural gas is finding support at the 20 [...]

Though we expect no change in rates tomorrow volumes have dried up in recent sessions; perhaps after 2:15 tomorrow investors/traders will be back at work. Crude oil should settle lower again today; on a breach of the 9 day MA at $77.50 expect a challenge of the 20 day MA at $75.50. If our assessment [...]