More risk….stock market or Fireworks? 7/2/9

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:26:14 +0000

Energies traded lower by 3.5-4.5% today. We will shortly be exploring longs in crude oil for clients. For those brave souls who are currently short we would advise trailing stops down to protect your profits. August crude oil should find support at $64.50 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $61.90 the 50%Fibonacci level. Natural gas did break the trend line in recent sessions so at the moment we would refrain from picking a bottom in futures. That being said we are still advising clients to accumulate October $1 call spreads. The only 2 currencies that traded higher today were the US dollar and yen, if the stock market continues lower the yen should remain bid. We will not be trading the US dollar for clients but we will be paying very close attention as the dollar will set the tone for movement elsewhere. On a close above the 20 day moving average in the dollar at 80.64 in September look for further upside and for other currencies and commodities to falter. The only play we endorse currently in currencies is long exposure in the Loonie. Grains were lower today, clients got stopped out of their long corn at a loss today. Stops were executed at $3.48 in September and $3.58 in December. We will be looking for a long entry again after the holiday. Gold goes into the holiday weekend down $10 closing just below the 50 day moving average. As long as prices stay above$900 we like being positioned long. September silver traded to its lowest price since May 5th. We are down on all our recent long entries for clients but we’re positioned for the next couple months and will be adding to the position when a bottom is confirmed. We still anticipate seeing $16 plus in the coming months. Continue to scale into shorts and puts in the March 10′ Euro-dollar. Equities are down a little over 2% heading into the long weekend and being prices are below the 50 day moving averages if we close below these levels look for more selling next week. We will be looking to re-enter cattle in a spread next week. Long December live cattle/ short October live cattle @ -50. Coffee and oj remain our picks in the softs sector.

Rally has begun 3/10/9

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:12:50 +0000

As of this posting crude has reversed from higher to lower; currently a $3 range on the day. 50 day moving average is at $45.30 in April and should act as support, if this level gives way we may see shorts pile in . Expect a $40/50 trading range ahead of OPEC this weekend. Use this break in RBOB to buy 20 cent call spreads out until June/August. Our pick in the currency market remains the Loonie. Grains were higher ahead of tomorrow’s USDA. We are lightly long corn and still in the soybean spread with clients. Gold continues to trade lower. We advised clients to buy1/3 of the gold they want to own on a postion trade and may work long futures from lower levels. Our trade today was buying the August $950/1050 call spread; filled at $2400 per. Still looking for silver under $12; todays low within 46 cents on May. Treasuries lower; watch the flow of money from the “safe haven” back to equities. Short the Euro-dollar! No news to report in softs but we remain friendly to sugar and coffee. We gave back the money that was made in previous sessions as hogs were lower by 2-3% today. The rally is underway… as of this posting equity markets are up 5%, we think this is the start of the rally we’ve been calling for in recent weeks. Hopefully some listened to our advice and got long the ES futures and ES options we’ve been suggesting. A 10-15% advance off the lows takes Dow to 7350+ and the S&P to 760+.

MBWealth's Commodity Blog » fibonacci retracement

More risk….stock market or Fireworks? 7/2/9

Rally has begun 3/10/9