MBWealth’s Commodity Blog

Clearly the Fed has no clue and if this is a market with NO inflation I’d hate to see a commodity market with inflation. Crude fights back in late dealings to close marginally positive in today’ sessions. My opinion is this price action was position squaring and light buying ahead of Bernanke’s speech today and [...]

Maybe inflation is not a concern but one can trade it as commodities look to be more expensive in the coming sessions and coming weeks to months. The 100 day MA has supported Crude futures the last two sessions; in March at $86.20. As voiced in previous posts we suggest scaling into longs in futures [...]

In case you were not aware the FOMC is meeting today and tomorrow so stay alert as even inaction can be a market mover. We’ve advised aggressive clients to scale into longs in Crude futures and to gain bullish options exposure; today some clients bought May $95/100 bull call spreads. The 100 day MA held [...]

The Federal Reserve meeting today was a non-event. Inside day in Crude oil with prices trading slightly lower. Unless we get a surprise in tomorrow’s inventory report we’re still anticipating a 2.5-4.0% reduction in pricing. Natural gas has retreated just over 7% in the last four sessions dragging prices back below the 20 day MA. [...]

Finally it looks like the smart money is recognizing the opportunity in a non-correlated asset class, i.e. COMMODITIES. Crude oil has appreciated 3.7% off yesterday’s lows which we feel will serve as an interim low. Our upside targets on October are $75.85 followed by $77.50. Crude oil, RBOB and heating oil were higher by 1.50-2.25% [...]

The move by the Ag minister in Russia overnight kept things interesting in commodities today. Aggressive traders could look at shorts in Crude oil as long as prices remain below $83 in the September contract. Some clients started to price out October and November put options today…stay tuned. We are anticipating a trade back to [...]

Though we expect no change in rates tomorrow volumes have dried up in recent sessions; perhaps after 2:15 tomorrow investors/traders will be back at work. Crude oil should settle lower again today; on a breach of the 9 day MA at $77.50 expect a challenge of the 20 day MA at $75.50. If our assessment [...]

You cannot have your cake and eat it too! Either circumstances in the economy are getting better and we need to start looking for an exit door or we are still in for a sh-t storm and then no action is necessary! If the Fed sees the economy improving than why leave IR at an [...]

A hush came over the commodity market until FOMC decision. The streak has ended at 9 days with Crude pushing higher today by just less than 2%. We are fairly confident that an interim bottom was established yesterday; $68.59 in the January contract. We have clients long via March $5 call spreads expecting a $5-7 [...]

February 12, 2009 By: Matthew Bradbard Eurodollars are deposits denominated in US dollars at banks outside the US, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the US, allowing for higher margins. There is nothing “European” about Eurodollar deposits; [...]