If any one is keeping score the BOJ no cut, RBA 25 basis point cut with the BoE meeting on Thursday where we expect nada. Crude was down 5% today and without a bullish inventory report tomorrow prices look poised to revisit $45. Asssuming the H/L ytd a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in May is $45.40. [...]
Expect the BOJ to hold rates at 0.10% and the RBA is more of a wilcard..cut of 25 basis points factored in. In terms of the trade we expect the Euro & Pound to move lower and the Loonie higher. Much of this will depend on if the dollar pushes higher or trades below 84 [...]
Down 9% yesterday and 7% today..yes folks natural gas. With our more agressive clients we will stay the course with mini-futures and May and June longs. We were stopped out of a portion of our longs on todays down move. Crude and RBOB will continue south for now as long as the US dollar moves [...]
Over the next few sessions currencies, metals, energies, financials and treasuries should make a decision on what the next direction will be. There has been sideways consolidation, a tug of war between buyers and sellers and we will shortly see who will prevail. This is how we have clients postioned:long natural gas, expecting a set [...]
As of this posting the US dollar is higher by 75 points and above the previous 2 sessions highs looking like it may gain in coming sessions. We expect a move up to 86 in short order. The question is how will this effect other currencies and commodities? We have clients long the Loonie and [...]
The entire energy complex was higher roughly 3% today. We are advising long futures in April crude as long as prices stay above $37.12 and have been buying May $45/52 spreads at$2000, pricing out June 20 cent calls spreads in RBOB. Remain long the Loonie, Swissie and Euro look strong; may have suggestions in next [...]
February 12, 2009 By: Matthew Bradbard Eurodollars are deposits denominated in US dollars at banks outside the US, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the US, allowing for higher margins. There is nothing “European” about Eurodollar deposits; [...]
For January 19th– January 23rd 2009 By: Matthew Bradbard While this week may be a shortened trading week there will be plenty of movement as the economy braces itself for a new regime, seeing that the 44th President, Barrack Obama, is inaugurated Tuesday. The economic outlook remains bad, cash is still king, though we do [...]
Sounds like a broken record but the dollar rules the roost. After a 75-100 basis point reduction in rates what ammunition wil the Fed use next? Get familiar over the next couple months with the term “quantitative easing.” The US dollar was 2.25% lower today and has lost 9% in the last 8 days. Many [...]
The US dollar had fallen 5 cents or 6% in the last 6 days. As we have said for weeks many commodities are looking for guidance from the dollar and oil. The immediate direction of oil should be dictated by OPEC on Wednesday. Gold and silver continue to be strong performers and we advise all [...]
