Today could mark a key reversal for several markets including but not limited to the US dollar, metals and energies. Oil reversed from these same levels in August…will history repeat itself? In recent blogs we hinted at this and on confirmation tomorrow Crude will likely move back to the 50 day MA; in November at [...]
I’m sticking to my positions and holding some winners and some losers putting it out there. For some followers who have to date failed to recognize some of my trades will be losers while others will be winners. Crude oil prices are at a seven week high approaching $82 in the November contract gaining nearly [...]
The move by the Ag minister in Russia overnight kept things interesting in commodities today. Aggressive traders could look at shorts in Crude oil as long as prices remain below $83 in the September contract. Some clients started to price out October and November put options today…stay tuned. We are anticipating a trade back to [...]
As long as indices tread water or move higher money should flow back into commodities and out of Treasuries and the US dollar. Crude followed thru today and now has the 20 day MA in its sights. As we said yesterday as long as equities move higher we think we could see crude appreciate $3-5 [...]
Crude is back above $75 for the first time in 3 1/2 weeks advancing for the fourth consecutive session. On the highs prices got within 30 cents of our first target; again$76.60 and then $79 are our objectives. It is entirely possible we run into resistance just above today’s highs so if you have sizable positions [...]
Metals, energies and stock indices appear to be moving in tandem with one another. The inverse relationship between Treasuries and equities also seems to be back in play. Crude failed to make a new high and those looking for a dip to get long we could see prices come back to the 20 day MA; [...]
Disappointing inventory news and oil still held up well only down 25 cents on the day. Use $76 as support in the March contract; our objectives on the upside are $78.25 & then $79.60-$80. Depending on how tight your stops were on natural gas you may have been stopped at a profit; prices traded 1-2 [...]
Oil is still trying to make up its mind on where to go. We have no opinion or positions currently but will most likely have suggestion in the coming weeks. Natural gas looks to close at slightly better levels, we still like 75 cent January call spreads. Fresh short entries in cocoa enjoyed sliding prices but unfortunately for [...]
No change in rates & no significant changes in the verbiage as expected. There was mention of inflation expectations but excessive and extended remained in their statement. The problem I see with no change in their course is they are headed down the wrong road, the market is giving the Fed to much credit ton getting their timing [...]
Dollar up commodities down, stocks up oil up, stocks down Treasuries up…well not today. Be wary of the decoupling as new relationships may be forming. We are thankful we took oil shorts off yesterday for clients albeit at a small loss being prices were higher by $1.25 today as of this post. Natural gas is [...]
