As long as indices tread water or move higher money should flow back into commodities and out of Treasuries and the US dollar. Crude followed thru today and now has the 20 day MA in its sights. As we said yesterday as long as equities move higher we think we could see crude appreciate $3-5 [...]
Crude is back above $75 for the first time in 3 1/2 weeks advancing for the fourth consecutive session. On the highs prices got within 30 cents of our first target; again$76.60 and then $79 are our objectives. It is entirely possible we run into resistance just above today’s highs so if you have sizable positions [...]
Metals, energies and stock indices appear to be moving in tandem with one another. The inverse relationship between Treasuries and equities also seems to be back in play. Crude failed to make a new high and those looking for a dip to get long we could see prices come back to the 20 day MA; [...]
Disappointing inventory news and oil still held up well only down 25 cents on the day. Use $76 as support in the March contract; our objectives on the upside are $78.25 & then $79.60-$80. Depending on how tight your stops were on natural gas you may have been stopped at a profit; prices traded 1-2 [...]
Oil is still trying to make up its mind on where to go. We have no opinion or positions currently but will most likely have suggestion in the coming weeks. Natural gas looks to close at slightly better levels, we still like 75 cent January call spreads. Fresh short entries in cocoa enjoyed sliding prices but unfortunately for [...]
No change in rates & no significant changes in the verbiage as expected. There was mention of inflation expectations but excessive and extended remained in their statement. The problem I see with no change in their course is they are headed down the wrong road, the market is giving the Fed to much credit ton getting their timing [...]
Dollar up commodities down, stocks up oil up, stocks down Treasuries up…well not today. Be wary of the decoupling as new relationships may be forming. We are thankful we took oil shorts off yesterday for clients albeit at a small loss being prices were higher by $1.25 today as of this post. Natural gas is [...]
Short covering, month end, dollar rally call it whatever you want. Here is the scorecard: short Crude oil, short the S&P, Short Euro-currency, Long the Yen, short silver, long Treasuries (NOB spread). We advised using todays’s retracement in corn to buy o get positioned in a portion of the corn you want to own into [...]
September oil appears to be having trouble getting through the $72.50 level. The immediate direction will be determined by tomorrows jobs # and how the dollar reacts. Natural gas was hit hard today, this was ideal for fresh entries to get positioned and we took advantage of this with clients who were waiting for a pullback. [...]
Maybe this should be the government program as opposed to “Cash for Clunkers.” A potential flag and pennant formation is in the works on the daily natural gas chart. You know our stance by now, we are bullish and have clients positioned in October & November call spreads. US dollar down all int’l currencies were [...]
