Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

1. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.  They always do. Until everyone fears the worst, and capitulates, markets will exceed expectations. Then, in the correction, will exceed expectations again.

2. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.  This is especially evident (visually) when moving averages are applied to price charts, short and long–term alike.

3. There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent.  Just look at a price chart.

4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Markets correct by going in the opposite direction, falling sharply after sustained, broad rallies, and rallying after sustained broad weakness.  The world ebbs and the world flows; it has always been thus, and shall always be thus.

5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.  Of course they do; they always have and they always shall. The public buys when euphoria reigns, and it sells when depressed years later.

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.  We are human beings dealing with rational and irrational markets; to believe that “fear” and “greed” can ever be lost is naive for they are the most fundamental of human traits.

7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.  Just as volume must follow the trend, so too must good markets have broad support and weak markets have broad weakness…

8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down —reflexive rebound —a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.  This really is how this bear market shall end; not with a hoped for “V” bottom, but with a great washing-out… a capitulation… and then months, or even years, of base building.

9. When all the experts and forecasts agree –something else is going to happen…. or as we like to say, “When they are yellin’, you should be sellin,’ and when they are cryin,’ you should be buyin.’ ”

10. Markets can not be predicted…. The market WILL dupe you if you try to predict prices! Ask yourself everyday, “how can this market move against my position(s)” and ensure you can take the risk or do something about it.

By: Matthew Bradbard

There are two major types of analysis normally used to predict the performance of commodity futures: fundamental and technical. Fundamental analysis examines the supply and demand factors that influence price, while technical analysis is the study of price and price behavior. The world of technical analysis is complex, but with a working knowledge can be applied to virtually any market. There are literally hundreds of different patterns and indicators that traders have in their trading toolbox, but you will find early on what works for you. In this article, I’ll introduce you to ten important rules of technical trading and how to apply them for your trading purposes.

What is Technical Analysis?

His rules are designed to help explain the whole idea of technical trading for the beginner and to streamline the trading methodology for the more experienced practitioner. These rules should present an outline and by applying technical analysis it ought to assist a trader with their buying and selling decisions. Which way is the market moving? How far up or down will it go? And when will it go the other way? These are the basic concerns of the technical analyst and I will try to make light of these mysteries.

The following are John J. Murphy’s Ten Most Important Rules of Technical Trading:

1. Map the Trends
Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale “map of the market” provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you’re trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.

When establishing a position trade look at the monthly, weekly, and then daily chart in that order. My best trades have said the same thing on all three time frames; buy or sell.

2. Spot the Trend and Go With It
Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes – long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you’re going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you’re trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you’re day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.

You’ve heard “the trend is your friend” now apply it.

3. Find the Low and High of It
Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old “high” becomes the new “low.” In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies — the old “low” can become the new “high.”

This helps a lot with stop placement and buying or selling breakouts.

4. Know How Far to Backtrack
Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.

If you already do not incorporate Fibonacci retracements in your trading, start. In fact go back and look at past trades and insert Fibonacci levels and see how much easier the trade could have been.

5. Draw the Line
Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes.

Recognizing if you are above or below support and or resistance will help with stop placement.

6. Follow that Average
Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if the existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.

Some averages work better depending on the market and time frame but for position trades the 40, 100, and 200 day moving averages are critical as those are usually what the “big boys” follow.

7. Learn the Turns
Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI. Oscillator divergences often warn of market turns. These tools work best in a trading market range. Weekly signals can be used as filters on daily signals. Daily signals can be used as filters for intra-day charts.

Many a time RSI and stochastics have kept me from taking on a position and in addition aided in a timely exit. Knowing when markets are either overbought or oversold is important because it is generally an early warning sign of a trend reversal.

8. Know the Warning Signs
Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It’s called a “histogram” because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.

MACD helps to identify when a trend reversal is likely and I like to use MACD on longer term charts but have not found it to be too effective on shorter time frames.

9. Trend or Not a Trend
Use ADX. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) line helps determine whether a market is in a trending or a trading phase. It measures the degree of trend or direction in the market. A rising ADX line suggests the presence of a strong trend. A falling ADX line suggests the presence of a trading market and the absence of a trend. A rising ADX line favors moving averages; a falling ADX favors oscillators. By plotting the direction of the ADX line, the trader is able to determine which trading style and which set of indicators are most suitable for the current market environment.

Obviously when looking at a price chart a trader can realize if the trend is up or down but the ADX allows you to further quantify the strength of the trend and if the trend appears likely to continue.

10. Know the Confirming Signs
Include volume and open interest. Volume and open interest are important confirming indicators in futures markets. Volume precedes price. It’s important to ensure that heavier volume is taking place in the direction of the prevailing trend. In an uptrend, heavier volume should be seen on up days. Rising open interest confirms that new money is supporting the prevailing trend. Declining open interest is often a warning that the trend is near completion. A solid price uptrend should be accompanied by rising volume and rising open interest.

Generally speaking, when you see a significant increase in volume that coincides with other technical indicators, you will see highs and lows typically made followed by trend reversals.

“Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.” John J. Murphy

Technical Analysis is a vital part of my trading and assists in the decision on almost every transaction but I do not make light of the situation that a trader must not ignore the fundamentals. I simply hold more regard for technicals.

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Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. There are no guarantees of market outcome stated, everything stated above are our opinions. Calculations of profit and loss have not factored in commissions and fees.