Inside day in crude today closing lower by just under $2/barrel which is not too bad considering the performance in outside markets. Our bias is down but we have no positions with clients and would prefer to be a buyer from lower levels. Use $79.50 as resistance and $77 followed by $75 as support in [...]
Pay close attention to the relationship between different asset classes and even different commodities, i.e dollar, oil, and metals. Our second objective at $77 in February Crude was reached today but prices did not stay there for long as oil reversed closing above $79/barrel. We suggest covering all remaining shorts and have yet to get clients [...]
The dollar rally looks to be real and markets are feeling the effects. As we’ve indicated most of our current positions are factoring in a moderate dollar rally before an about face and move to lower lows. Crude was lower by virtually 3% as we near our targets on shorts. The last 4 sessions the [...]
If the US dollar was to rally what to do? Crude oil is down just over 2% as of this post and if prices were to close lower this would mark the first consecutive lower closes since late September. We maintain that on a further dollar appreciation Crude can come down $5 plus; the 38.3% [...]
Oil appears to be stalling after a very impressive move… could it be the US dollar is finding footing? If prices fail to trade above yesterdays high at $81.99 on the December contract we should have an interim top in place. We have clients positioned in bear put spreads in January. Natural gas should move lower [...]
Neither scenario being early or late to a trade is ideal but I would rather myself be in early. I am convinced that is the case with our most recent oil trade. We advised clients to get short via options yesterday, followed by a 3% rally today. We expect a trade back to $75 on [...]
There are numerous ways to play long oil, short Treasuries or for that matter any and all of your investment conclusions. We will be looking for ways to further our exposure in long energy for clients but at this point only hold longs in natural gas. We do feel that prices of Crude and the [...]
While short or long is only a difference in direction why do traders have a problem getting short. Maybe it is the psychology; perhaps it is easier to cheer for an asset to move up rather than down. To be extremely successful in this volatile environment we think a long only mentality is not the way to go. Why [...]
As of this writing the Aussie has taken off like a possessed kangaroo up virtually 4% today back above .6500 in March.We are fighting back with March longs in options and futures. Additionally in currencies we like the Loonie to the upside. We are pricing out 3 cent call spreads on the March yen but [...]
Natural gas gained 3.5% today and we are advising clients to try the long side again. We are buying futures with stops below the low in March in additon to selling March $5 calls while simultaneously buying April $5 calls. We did this trade for clients today at $1500 per spread. It appears we will [...]
