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Who called this correction? 6/3/9

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 19:32:56 +0000

Yours truly…read past blogs and commentaries MB Wealth has been saying the recent commodity move had over extended itself and Mr. Market delivered. As a trader sometimes you get out too early and we’re guilty of that for clients in recent weeks. The way I look at it I would rather be on the sidelines wishing I was in the market vs. in the market wishing I was on the sidelines. All energies got hit today, we used the setback in natural gas to buy clients who previous did not have exposure; September $4.50/5.50 call spreads & a butterfly spread inSeptmber…inquire for strikes and or strategy. A 50% Fib. retracement in July crude takes prices to $55.50. I hope you listened and lightened up on your fx plays, we’ve been preaching that for the last 2 weeks. We’re short the Loonie and will be looking for long entries in the Aussie and yen in coming sessions for clients. Agriculture fell apart as we predicted, curently short July beans via options. Gold and silver down, just what the doctor ordered. Let the dust settle and we’ll have bullish futures and option ideas to come. $925 and $14 seem attainable at this point. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Treasuries should rally, get long with tight stops or look to fade this rally in a few days. Sugar, coffee and cotton got hit hard today, more downside to come…we’ll be suggesting longs soon. Equities were lower but this could just be profit taking, too early to call an interim top.

Markets encouraged by Geithner’s plan 3/23/9

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 21:09:37 +0000

Crude oil settled over $50 once again and moving up 35% in just the last month….. but we have no inflation! Brace your self for what is to come, we continue to advise clients to buy dips in crude, RBOB and natural gas. April postions may run out of time but being long May and June natural gas makes sense as we expect $5 in the near future. We advised clients to re-establish longs in the Loonie today, advisng exposure in both May and June. Additonally we were buyers of the June yen looking for a bounce to at least 106. We advised clients to lighten up on their SX9/SK9 spreads at break even. Get long via futures and options on setbacks in gold and silver. Contact us for more precise details. Coffee looks poised for the next leg up, we traded out of most of the May postions last week but are still holding the July 20 cent call spreads. We will be using the most recent setback in June hogs to get long. Look for the special lean hog report issued tomorrow 3/24. The equity market was up substantially on the new bank bailout. We would use this move to get out of remaining longs.

Rally has begun 3/10/9

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 19:12:50 +0000

As of this posting crude has reversed from higher to lower; currently a $3 range on the day. 50 day moving average is at $45.30 in April and should act as support, if this level gives way we may see shorts pile in . Expect a $40/50 trading range ahead of OPEC this weekend. Use this break in RBOB to buy 20 cent call spreads out until June/August. Our pick in the currency market remains the Loonie. Grains were higher ahead of tomorrow’s USDA. We are lightly long corn and still in the soybean spread with clients. Gold continues to trade lower. We advised clients to buy1/3 of the gold they want to own on a postion trade and may work long futures from lower levels. Our trade today was buying the August $950/1050 call spread; filled at $2400 per. Still looking for silver under $12; todays low within 46 cents on May. Treasuries lower; watch the flow of money from the “safe haven” back to equities. Short the Euro-dollar! No news to report in softs but we remain friendly to sugar and coffee. We gave back the money that was made in previous sessions as hogs were lower by 2-3% today. The rally is underway… as of this posting equity markets are up 5%, we think this is the start of the rally we’ve been calling for in recent weeks. Hopefully some listened to our advice and got long the ES futures and ES options we’ve been suggesting. A 10-15% advance off the lows takes Dow to 7350+ and the S&P to 760+.

Happy B-day Abraham 2/12/9

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 21:14:13 +0000

Natural gas still searching for a bottom; get long March futures with a stop below4.25. We will also be pricing out April calls soon. We would be a buyer of oil under $33 but have little interest in buliding a position yet…could be talked into trading a bounce from oversold levels. Trend remains down until a close above $40. We like June 20 cent call spreads in RBOB. On a close above 1.30 in March we expect a quick move to 1.50. We remain long the Loonie with clients still looking for a penetration of 82. The yen is down on an advance in equities; ideally looking for a long entry near 1.0850. We may look to re-establish longs in the Aussie and Kiwi, stay tuned. Corn and beans look lower into the weekend even with impressive exports, buy this dip. Gold and silver still have some gas in the tank but we continue to be cautious expecting a violent correction. Fade this up move in the Euro-dollar; we issued a special report today. Call for a further explanation. We advised clients to buy this dip in May coffee and covered our short legs on the call spreads at a profit 0f just under $700/per. Sugar had an impressive close , rallying to end 40 ticks off lows. Sweet move! We hope you heeded our advice and bought April and June pigs as they were 2-2.5% higher today.

Get long Commodities 1/23/9

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 21:30:24 +0000

Oil briefly traded at $47 today. We could still test $32 before everything is said and done but if equities rally early next week we could see a move to $50 next week. Natural gas has been lower 13 of the last 14 days. Picking a bottom is dangerous and usually costly but keep this market on your radar. If you are not long with gold or silver ask yourself why? We like Julyand December silver and June gold. We have multiple options and futures ideas; contact us. The US dollar looks heavy and if we see a gap down open on Monday we will form an island top which would be extremely bearish. On a trade above 87.50 look for higher prcies and on a trade below 85.75 look for lower pricing. We still feel the Aussie and Kiwi are probing for a bottom and like being lightly long. We hold March Pound puts for customers and are currently under water but we expect a bounce next week to 1.4250. The Loonie showed signs of a reversal today and if energies and metals gain next week one should be long this currency. For now it appears rates are going higher and prices are going lower so stay short Treasuries and the Euro-dollar. This could change at a moments notice so stay alert. We took a loss in cocoa today on our March options. Coffee looks strong; we expect to roll out of March into more time in the near future. Stocks should hold and move higher next week; 800 on the S&P may be support as opposed to 825 as we had previously forecast. Cattle on feed report today was friendly, livestock should take direction from equities come Monday.

Is the reversal real? 1/15/9

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 20:09:27 +0000

I am writing this a bit early today and things may change in the next few hours but I need to leave the office early for a radio interview this evening. I will be joined by Barbashop; one of our most succesful CTA’s in 08′ (up over 130%). We will be speaking about managed futures. In the markets today after falling apart this moring equity indices reversed and at the moment the Dow is 250 points off its lows and the s&P has rallied 29 points. If these levels hold we may have put in an interim bottom and would expect to see a bounce in the short-term. We would like to see better volumes though. We have yet to buy oil for customers but are getting close. Additonally we like the idea of selling puts in RBOB and buying calls feeling that a 20% move higher is more likely than a 20% move lower. We will be long silver and gold for clients by the end of the week from higher or lower levels via futures and options. Australian dollar trade from 2 previous posts is still on our radar as a viable play. 85.50 is the pivot point in the dollar as we have voiced for the last week…pay attention in the next few sessions. Sugar was up 5.5% today; we bought for customers yesterday. Did you? Start shorting the March 10′ ED from these levels with 1/3 of your anticipated postion size.

Did the move higher in Gold & Silver suck you in? 12/29/08

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 19:56:20 +0000

We are longer term friendly to gold and silver but short term we expect to see a setback. Prices traded significantly higher in early dealings but with an afternoon comeback in the dollar prices retreated with silver giving back 45 cents and gold $13 as of this posting. Trading will be lite this week because of the holiday so expect more pronounced movement. We are looking to get March silver closer to 9.50 and February gold below 800. The correction may have begun in cocoa as March was down $80 today..see commentary. Sugar managed to gain 2% today and as we have touted we like being long May. We booked a profit in the $7 natural gas calls today for clients but still hold the $8 calls and are currently underwater. We will be looking for an exit on a further advance over the next few sessions. We are waiting for the currencies to come to us and have no recommendations. Talking to some of our live stock contacts today they are selling February live cattle expecting prices to move lower. Contact us for exact objective. We executed corn and soybean trades today looking for prices to come down between now and the January 12th USDA crop report and then a rebound. We are selling May calls and using that premium to buy March puts. We are trying to get the options part of the trade done for no cost. (ex. sell call for 40 cents and buy put for 38 cents) At the same time we are getting long March futures looking to carry the long into the USDA report. Depending on where clients are ahead of the report we may lift a piece or all of their options exposure.