We have a number of shorts on commodities thinking a setback is due. A failed rally…say it is not so! Crude looks to close higher on the day but below $82 and $1 off its high. We remain convinced a 5-7% correction is right around the corner. Forget the fundamentals and technicals; throw it all out [...]
1 year ago today equity markets bottomed and a vicious rally ensued but are we any better off than we were at that time? The lack of new buying above $80 hints of a correction to come. Yesterday we made a new high and failed and today we saw a lower high and lower low [...]
That is not to say ALL commodities will correct but examining the technicals and digging deeper into the fundamentals we expect a “healthy” correction in a number of commodities. Those that have already come off the damage may have already been done (sugar, natural gas, cocoa, agriculture) but others look ripe for a correction. Where [...]
This phrase is coined for the college basketball tournament but I think it is an accurate description of what to expect as a trader this month. At its highs today oil was less than $3/barrel from making new highs on the year. Being bearish for the last 1-2 weeks has made our clients NO $ [...]
Sometimes traders can make money by not being in a trade. It is ok to be in cash when you cannot find a trade that you are comfortable with. That is not to say we are not trading we have just been trading more options than we typically do and scaling down our size. $81/81.50 continues [...]
The dollar cut thru the 20 day moving average like a hot knife thru butter and in just 2 days erased the previous 2 weeks of gains. The dollar is in control of the destiny of commodities in the short run. As we’ve voiced in recent posts we expect sideways to down in the dollar and [...]
Wild swings and crazy volatility is becoming commonplace commodity wide. These markets are choppy and trend less so one must really monitor their positions on an intra-day basis. Crude oil will finish higher on the day but it remains a sell on rallies market near $80 in my estimation. We maintain that a move to [...]
Crude was down just over 1% today closing almost $2 off its highs. We continue to suggest selling near $80/barrel expecting a trade near $75 in the coming weeks. We suggest on futures to have stops above $81, in options clients own May $75/70 put spreads. Natural gas was lower by almost 3% and though [...]
For the last trading day to be on the 26th of the month just doesn’t seem right. Needless to say based on the market action today there seemed to be some month end window dressing, It will be interesting how we start the month of March next Monday. Oil remained range bound ending the week near the [...]
It is not always how the report comes out but how the market reacts. Being oil has had trouble getting above $80 on a closing basis in recent sessions and charts are oversold we decided to get some short exposure for clients today. Intra-day prices were below both the 40 and 50 day moving averages [...]
