The Fat lady has Sung 7/16/10
Oil started the week at $76 and looks to end the week around $76. The trend line that was broken on Tuesday that has previously served as resistance now has become support. Aggressive traders could buy dips that hold that line; at $75.75 in September. It is a positive sign oil held up in the face of a falling stock market but we have a tough time getting too bullish. Keep your positions small until the picture gets clearer. October call spreads remain the play in natural gas for our clients. Next week we would like to see a settlement above the 50 day MA; in the September contract that level is $4.64. A false break out in equities that even positive earnings news, a Goldman settlement and regulation cannot hold this market up. Clients are going to continue selling rallies. Scale into September ES shorts; clients are positioned in put spreads expecting a test of 1000. Clients traded out of more of their sugar as prices have completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. After a 23% appreciation in the last five weeks we think a set back is over due. Treasuries finished the week higher as is again looks to be the flight to quality as investors flee other asset classes. Indices down should equal Treasuries up in the weeks to come. Gold ended the week on an ugly note trading down $15 today. Clients have NO exposure but have been advised to sell on a trade below $1177 or buy above $1220. Silver is back below the 100 day MA losing almost 3% today. We lightened up for some clients with multiple positions in September futures. They will likely re-establish longs from lower levels next week. Clients were advised to stay the course on their December calls though they are down on the trade. On a correction lower in grains next week look to be a buyer of corn, soybeans and wheat. The easy money has been made on dollar shorts and we expect a bounce next week. Clients remain short the Euro and Swissie…see previous posts. After a failed assault at $1.30 in the Euro we expect trade lower. The Swissie should find support on the way down at .9330 and then .9160.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Tags: commodity, corn, crude oil, futures, gold, live cattle, MB Wealth, natural gas, options, silver, soybeans, sugar, treasuries, wheat
