A new sheriff in town 6/24/10
Australia elected its first female prime minister. Let’s see if a woman can get things back in order. Perhaps other global leaders could learn a thing or two. Looking at the daily chart in August Crude we may get a bounce from here as the trend line that has been in place since mid-May held today. We are not prepared to commit with futures just yet for clients but we lightly started getting long today. Some clients were buyers of September $76/$85 1:2 call spreads. This strategy gives you flexibility and you can react if Crude moves lower to $74 or higher to $81. Contact us for further clarification. We’ve yet to move into natural gas for clients but if $4.70 continues to support we should have some ideas next week. As of this post equities are on their lows moving below the 20 day MA trading to fresh two week lows. Our first objective of 1075 was obtained in the S&P. The question from here is do we see a move directly to 1045 or do we get a dead cat bounce. Clients were advised to put in gtc profit orders on their September ES puts today. October sugar is running into stiff resistance at 16.25…tomorrow we feel we need to see new highs or we would expect to see a re-visit of 15 cents. Continue to gain bearish exposure to December cotton. The move in coffee has been incredible with prices hitting a twelve year high today. It’s a shame the only coffee in my life lately has been the cup of Joe I drink in the morning. Someone has made a lot of money too bad this time it was not my clients. Treasuries should run into resistance at the contract highs made on May 25th. Clients hold a small put position in August 122 bond puts. Live cattle remain a buy as we view this market as a coiled spring ready to bounce. Aggressive traders could short August lean hogs with stops above the recent highs. The line in the sand remains in place in August gold at $1232-35. Clients have no exposure long or short. July silver held the 50 day MA again today. We think it is still feasible to see a trade below $18/ounce so we are advising clients to exercise patience. On a trade lower they will be looking to buy September futures and December call spreads. Traders should have been stopped out of their soybeans and soy meal at a profit in recent sessions as prices have retraced. We moved the CBOT/KCBOT wheat spread order to 30 cents from 32 cents but the order was unable even at that price. Clients have no currency exposure but would be willing to explore shorts in the Aussie and Loonie from higher levels.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Tags: australian dollar, Canadian Dollar, commodity, corn, crude oil, futures, gold, MB Wealth, natural gas, options, silver, soy meal, soybeans, wheat
