D(ecision) – day Looms 8/6/9
September oil appears to be having trouble getting through the $72.50 level. The immediate direction will be determined by tomorrows jobs # and how the dollar reacts. Natural gas was hit hard today, this was ideal for fresh entries to get positioned and we took advantage of this with clients who were waiting for a pullback. Not so good for traders that were already in the market as a majority of the profits were given back, that includes our clients. Irregardless we are looking for $1 move higher in the futures between now and the end of September. US dollar looks like a bounce is due. if the recent support holds. We advised clients to exit their 165 British pound puts for a profit of 40% , not bad for a 3 day trade. We maintain the previously bought 160 puts that did get some value back though clients are still down. BoE kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as forecast but did speak of their quantitative easing program, the ECB left rates unchanged at 1.0%. Expect volatility on tomorrow’s jobs #in forex. Agriculture got hit hard to today on disappointing exports. We maintain longs in corn and wheat for clients and are currently down but we suggest staying put for now. We took partial profits for clients on their silver today as $15 served as resistance. For outright longs we advised clients to sell higher strikes, turning the trade into a bull call spread. We will be looking to take a profit on 925 and 950 Es puts on a trade lower in the S&P. We executed a bullish option play in live cattle today for clients; selling puts and buying calls. Lean hogs were nearly down limit today. We continue to try to time this bottom and to date it has been painful. Today clients were buyers of December 54 cent calls. Cocoa was lower by almost 2% today, we are still short via puts and looking for more downside.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Before trading MB Wealth recommends that you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if commodity trading is appropriate for you. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Tags: BOE, commodity, corn, crude oil, ECB, futures, gold, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, NFP, options, S&P, silver, wheat
