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If your Long your Wrong…today 7/8/9

If you’ve been short energy congratulations, if you’ve been waiting for a correction to get long it is well underway. In the last week crude oil is down 18%, RBOB is lower b y 17.5%, heating oil is down by 18%, and natural gas by 19%.  We will continue to buy October $1 call spreads for clients. We’re are down on all positions in natural gas currently but we expect that to be a different story 2-3 week from now.  Guess what… the yen was higher by 2.5% as of this posting trading to a new 6 month high. If you read our weekly commentary we were looking for higher pricing if the weakness persisted in the stock market but this move exceeded our expectations. The calls we suggested Monday for $1000 traded near $3000 today. We bought more December $4 calls in corn for clients today for just under $600. Serious technical damage has been done to silver and gold but we are still suggesting call spreads in both metals. Our logic is premium is being sucked out of the options but once the market turns the options will be pricey. Again I would rather be early and wrong for 1-3 weeks than have to pay extra for this strategy. Do we have a double top in the March 10″ Euro-dollar? Short futures or buy puts. Equity markets lower again, for those of you who own August 850 ES puts put in a limit at 39 points on 75% of position and 49 points for the remainder. Trade idea; buy the October 86/81 put spread in live cattle for $450. We just missed our profit objective for clients in oj. We will now hold for the next leg up with the same target.

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 8th, 2009 at 2:23 pm and is filed under Daily Thought. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

2 Responses to “If your Long your Wrong…today 7/8/9”

  1. q1q2q3 Says:
    July 8th, 2009 at 9:04 pm

    Thanks for your effort – You are a star.
    But before all this fading stuff you have stubbornly gotten into for last couple of months you were a shining light.
    It is so easy and to call market turns….again and again….in commentary, while so expensive when trading.

  2. MBradbard Says:
    July 10th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    Help me understand the “stubborn trades” in the last couple of months. Outside of the corn ahead of the USDA every trade either was a small loss, a profit or clients are still in. In terms of trading being expensive unless you are trading with me I cannot estimate your costs of doing business or your trading losses. I would be happy to discuss all with you. You know how to reach me, email directly or call me toll-free.